Evaluation of future hurricane risks in CAPRA

The Central American Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) project is an ongoing initiative to develop a GIS-based decision-support tool for understanding, visualizing, and communicating disaster risk to decision makers at the local, national, and regional levels.  CAPRA takes a probabilistic approach to risk analysis, using historical occurrences of earthquakes, volcanoes, or hurricanes to create hazard distributions that are combined with local measures of exposure and vulnerability to generate distributions of disaster risk and impacts. NCAR project participants generate hurricane statistics from the Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM) simulations over the Caribbean and Central American region for use in the CAPRA system. The main objective of this activity is to evaluate the change in risk from hurricanes exposure in current and future climates.  The GIS program staff work on translating the NRCM netCDF data into the CAPRA data format and collaborate with other involved organizations (such as ERN-AL) to integrate hurricane projections data properly into the CAPRA system.  This task includes the development of appropriate analysis code and model interpretation methodology, relevant to CAPRA, as well as test runs of CAPRA, incorporating the NRCM hurricane projections.  


Lawrence Buja (NCAR/RAL)
Cindy Bruyere (NCAR/MMM)
Jennifer Boehnert (NCAR/RAL)
Sherrie Fredrick (NCAR/MMM)
Olga Wilhelmi (NCAR/RAL)


Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)